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Dear all,</div>
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<span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Hope everyone is having a nice week!</span><br>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Today, we have Dr </span><span style="font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">Sebastian Engelke (University of Geneva) presenting</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> at
the S3RI seminar (2 PM) on</span><br>
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">"</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Causality for extreme values.</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">"</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">P</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">lease see below for the details of the talk and how to
join the seminar online.</span></div>
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Hope to see you at the seminar later today!</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Kind regards,</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Jessie</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>
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<div style="font-size:14px"><em><strong><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Causality for extreme values</span></strong></em></div>
<div style=""><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Sebastian Engelke (University of Geneva)</span><span style="font-size:15px"><br>
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<span style="font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">Causal inference for rare events has important applications in many fields such as medicine, climate science and finance. We present two different approaches to study causality for extreme
values. The first work studies causal discovery in heavy-tailed linear structural equation models. We develop a new causal tail coefficient and use it to consistently estimate the causal order among variables relying only on the largest observations.</span>
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<div><span style="font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">In the second approach, we introduce an extremal quantile treatment effect as the difference of extreme quantiles of the potential outcome distributions. Estimation of this effect is
based on extrapolation results from extreme value theory in combination with a new counterfactual Hill estimator that uses propensity scores as adjustment. We establish the asymptotic theory of this estimator and apply it to analyze the effect of college education
on high wages.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">This talk is based on the papers Gnecco et al. (2021, Ann. Stat.) and Deuber et al. (2021, arXiv:2110.06627).</span><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif"></span><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt"></span><span style="font-size:15px"><br>
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