<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<style type="text/css" style="display:none;"> P {margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;} </style>
</head>
<body dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<div style="margin: 0px; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">Dear all,</span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 12pt; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"><br>
Hope everyone is having a nice week.</span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">Just a reminder that at the S3RI seminar today (at 2 PM), we have our own members from Southampton, Dr Francesco Pantalone, giving a talk on</span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">"A simulated annealing-based algorithm for selecting balanced samples," </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">and Christis Katsouris, presenting on </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">"Structural-break Detection in Nonstationary Quantile Time Series Models."</span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">Please see below for the details of the talks and how to join the seminar online.</span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;">Hope to see you at the seminar later today!</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;">Kind regards,</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 12pt; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(32, 31, 30); background-color: white;"><br>
</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;">Jessie</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<b><i><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">A simulated annealing-based algorithm for selecting balanced samples.</span></i></b><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"><br>
</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;">Francesco Pantalone</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">Balanced sampling is a random method for sample selection, the use of which is preferable when auxiliary information is available for all units of a population. However, implementing
balanced sampling can be a challenging task, and this is due in part to the computational efforts required and the necessity to respect balancing constraints and inclusion probabilities. In the present paper, a new algorithm for selecting balanced samples
is proposed. This method is inspired by simulated annealing algorithms, as a balanced sample selection can be interpreted as an optimization problem. A set of simulation experiments and an example using real data shows the efficiency and the accuracy of the
proposed algorithm.</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<b><i><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">Structural-break Detection in Nonstationary Quantile Time Series Models</span></i></b><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"><br>
</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black; background-color: white;">Christis Katsouris</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 12pt; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;">In this paper, we propose an econometric framework for structural break detection in nonstationary quantile predictive regressions. We establish the asymptotic distributions for a class
of Wald and fluctuation type statistics based on both the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator and the endogenous instrumental variable regression (IVX) estimator proposed by Phillips, P. C. B and Magdalinos, T. (2009). Although the asymptotic distribution
of these test statistics appears to depend on the chosen estimator, the IVZ based tests are shown to be asymptotically nuisance parameter-free regardless of the degree of persistence. The finite-sample performance of both tests is evaluated via simulation
experiments and bootstrap based-inference techniques. An empirical application to house pricing index returns demonstrates the practicality of the proposed structural break testing procedures for regression quantiles of nonstationary time series data. </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px 0px 15pt">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px 0px 15pt">
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"><Details for joining the seminar></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px 0px 15pt">
<div style="margin:0px 0px 15pt">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><a href="https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3a71f0ed99e3ce45219eef73b9cbd1b0f3%40thread.tacv2/1636456241606?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%224a5378f9-29f4-4d3e-be89-669d03ada9d8%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22e8a58481-ba8c-4921-b869-4a905d652ae7%22%7d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3a71f0ed99e3ce45219eef73b9cbd1b0f3%40thread.tacv2/1636456241606?context=%7b%22tid%22%3a%224a5378f9-29f4-4d3e-be89-669d03ada9d8%22%2c%22oid%22%3a%22e8a58481-ba8c-4921-b869-4a905d652ae7%22%7d" style="margin:0px"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(98, 100, 167);">Click
here to join the meeting</span></a></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px 0px 3pt">
<div style="margin:0px 0px 3pt">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; background-color: white;">
<b><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);">Or call in (audio only)</span></b><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px 0px 3pt">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px 0px 15pt; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><a href="tel:+442037940272,,341323071#" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="tel:+442037940272,,341323071#" style="margin:0px"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(98, 100, 167);">+44
20 3794 0272,,341323071#</span></a></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><span> </span> United Kingdom, London</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);">Phone Conference ID: 341 323 071#</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><br>
<a href="https://dialin.teams.microsoft.com/06db52e8-d478-428c-ac92-018e3ba44e01?id=341323071" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="https://dialin.teams.microsoft.com/06db52e8-d478-428c-ac92-018e3ba44e01?id=341323071" style="margin:0px"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(98, 100, 167);">Find
a local number</span></a></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><span> </span>|<span> </span></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif; color: rgb(37, 36, 36);"><a href="https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmysettings.lync.com%2Fpstnconferencing&data=04%7C01%7CC-H.Wu%40soton.ac.uk%7C80586f94d69642ace31908d9a3737389%7C4a5378f929f44d3ebe89669d03ada9d8%7C0%7C0%7C637720538509899588%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=SD08yZLlPiIksWvLZGV1T77mtrgwkNKANGUCH%2Bs1otQ%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" shash="sHVsMTz9RdCFWpeswhT6GthK13fMTSWz7MPTYWFhUbrtJFOwnyDftyqANnRh5UzVRi/m/B4PkVVqEbQMPv/INBmFxhFbJm59uT+sz8rWpKCF487rv7mn749o9J+/oRYbHN9MiO8zyBHJXj84ubLKJqq1bBqDDujj4MRZRgScS1Q=" title="Original URL: https://mysettings.lync.com/pstnconferencing. Click or tap if you trust this link." style="margin:0px"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(98, 100, 167);">Reset
PIN</span></a></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.15pt; color: black;"><Details for joining S3RI team on Microsoft Teams></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: black;"></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin:0px">
<p style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.15pt; color: black; background-color: white;">If you would like to join the S3RI team on Microsoft Teams, please use the link below:</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.15pt; color: rgb(60, 64, 67); background-color: white;"><br>
<br>
</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.15pt; color: black; background-color: white;"><a href="https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Furl%3Fq%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fteams.microsoft.com%2Fl%2Fteam%2F19%25253a71f0ed99e3ce45219eef73b9cbd1b0f3%252540thread.tacv2%2Fconversations%3FgroupId%253D260706f2-7819-4bfe-920a-3d55825d8e9c%2526tenantId%253D4a5378f9-29f4-4d3e-be89-669d03ada9d8%26sa%3DD%26source%3Dcalendar%26usd%3D2%26usg%3DAOvVaw2XvLgdTxMOK_D8EYzydQd6&data=04%7C01%7CC-H.Wu%40soton.ac.uk%7C80586f94d69642ace31908d9a3737389%7C4a5378f929f44d3ebe89669d03ada9d8%7C0%7C0%7C637720538509909544%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=QCglwE%2B2%2B3pzrw08NoN6oeqMeDEu87rzFiL0l3pq8xs%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" shash="fRLRqqX+Kt3pcOX5m+rjH8oLuuBFy1ZAEYM27lOxAbaZX2T60foqI0iszVi8zOzJ+gWBvMq93RNpt19tbR4o030WnyYOcI/OkVwAGmGnxz7AX4s4/YtHzH+rX16u9vIzTbityFgAHj1nEnJ56EZpepf15HauleYPX/48Evp3nCk=" title="Original URL: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%253a71f0ed99e3ce45219eef73b9cbd1b0f3%2540thread.tacv2/conversations?groupId%3D260706f2-7819-4bfe-920a-3d55825d8e9c%26tenantId%3D4a5378f9-29f4-4d3e-be89-669d03ada9d8&sa=D&source=calendar&usd=2&usg=AOvVaw2XvLgdTxMOK_D8EYzydQd6. Click or tap if you trust this link." style="margin:0px">https://teams.microsoft.com/l/team/19%3a71f0ed99e3ce45219eef73b9cbd1b0f3%40thread.tacv2/conversations?groupId=260706f2-7819-4bfe-920a-3d55825d8e9c&tenantId=4a5378f9-29f4-4d3e-be89-669d03ada9d8</a></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
<div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
<br>
</div>
<div id="Signature">
<div>
<div></div>
<div></div>
<div></div>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">---</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">Chieh-Hsi (Jessie) Wu, PhD</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">Lecturer in Statistics</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">School of Mathematics</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">University of Southampton</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body>
</html>