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<span style="margin:0px"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Dear all,</span></span></span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px; color: black; background-color: white;"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Hope everyone is having a good week!</span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px; color: black; background-color: white;"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Today </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white;">at 2 PM,
</span><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Prof Leonhard Held (University of Zurich) is giving an S3RI seminar on</span><br>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;">"</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box"><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box">The
assessment of replication success based on relative effect size</span></span><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box">.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;">"</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;">Apologies for the short notice, </span><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><u>due
to unexpected IT issues, the seminar today (2 PM, UK time) is going to be on Zoom!! </u></b></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Please see below for the
<b><u>Zoom details</u></b> to join the seminar online and <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">
the details of the talk</span>.</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Hope to see you at the seminar later today!</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Kind regards,</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Jessie</span></p>
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<div style="margin:0px"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u><Zoom details for joining the seminar></u></b></span></div>
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(60, 64, 67); background-color: white; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"><span style="margin:0px"><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Topic:
Southampton Seminar</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Time:
Apr 15, 2021 03:00 PM Zurich</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Join Zoom
Meeting</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Meeting
ID: 672 2838 7078</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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430700</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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(Amsterdam Netherlands)</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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(Japan Osaka)</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Meeting
ID: 672 2838 7078</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;">Passcode:
430700</span></span></span></span></p>
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(60, 64, 67); background-color: white; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;"><br>
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<p style="margin: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; background-color: white;">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(60, 64, 67); background-color: white; letter-spacing: 0.15pt;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"><span style="margin:0px"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", "Segoe UI Web (West European)", "Segoe UI", -apple-system, system-ui, Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 14.6667px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); display: inline !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><b><i>The
assessment of replication success based on relative effect size</i></b></span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", system-ui, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Leonard Held (University of Zurich)</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", system-ui, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", system-ui, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Replication studies are increasingly conducted in order to confirm original findings.
However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice many different approaches are used. The purpose of this paper is to refine and extend a recently proposed reverse-Bayes approach for the analysis of replication studies.
We show how this method is directly related to the relative effect size, the ratio of the replication to the original effect estimate. This perspective leads to a new proposal to recalibrate the assessment of replication success, the golden level. The recalibration
ensures that for borderline significant original studies replication success can only be achieved if the replication effect estimate is larger than the original one. Conditional power for replication success can then take any desired value if the original
study is significant and the replication sample size is large enough. Compared to the standard approach to require statistical significance of both the original and replication study, replication success at the golden level offers uniform gains in project
power and controls the Type-I error rate if the replication sample size is not smaller than the original one. An application to data from four large replication projects shows that the new approach leads to more appropriate inferences, as it penalizes shrinkage
of the replication estimate compared to the original one, while ensuring that both effect estimates are sufficiently convincing on their own.</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: "Segoe UI", system-ui, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Segoe UI", system-ui, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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<span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">This is joint work with Charlotte Micheloud and Samuel Pawel</span><br>
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