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<div><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">Dear all,</span></span>
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<div style="margin: 0px; color: black; background-color: white;"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">Hope everyone has had a nice Easter break!</span></div>
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<div style="margin: 0px; color: black; background-color: white;"><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">Our first S3RI seminar after Easter break is on this Thursday 15 April </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;">at
2 pm, where</span><span style="margin:0px; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt"> Prof Leonard Held (University of Zurich) will give a talk on</span><br>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;">"</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box"><span style="box-sizing:border-box; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:12pt">The
assessment of replication success based on relative effect size</span></span><span style="margin:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;">"</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Please see below for the details of the talk and how to
join the seminar online.</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Have a great week and hope to see you at the seminar on
Thursday!</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
<p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; background-color: white;"><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Kind regards,</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; color: black;"></span></p>
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</span><span style="margin: 0px; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: white; color: black;">Jessie</span></p>
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<span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif"><b><i>The assessment of replication success based on relative effect size</i></b></span><br>
<span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Leonard Held (University of Zurich)</span><br>
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<span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">Replication studies are increasingly conducted in order to confirm original findings. However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice many different
approaches are used. The purpose of this paper is to refine and extend a recently proposed reverse-Bayes approach for the analysis of replication studies. We show how this method is directly related to the relative effect size, the ratio of the replication
to the original effect estimate. This perspective leads to a new proposal to recalibrate the assessment of replication success, the golden level. The recalibration ensures that for borderline significant original studies replication success can only be achieved
if the replication effect estimate is larger than the original one. Conditional power for replication success can then take any desired value if the original study is significant and the replication sample size is large enough. Compared to the standard approach
to require statistical significance of both the original and replication study, replication success at the golden level offers uniform gains in project power and controls the Type-I error rate if the replication sample size is not smaller than the original
one. An application to data from four large replication projects shows that the new approach leads to more appropriate inferences, as it penalizes shrinkage of the replication estimate compared to the original one, while ensuring that both effect estimates
are sufficiently convincing on their own. </span><span style="font-size:14.6667px"></span><br style="font-size:14.6667px">
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<span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:Calibri,Helvetica,sans-serif">This is joint work with Charlotte Micheloud and Samuel Pawel</span></div>
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<span style="color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">---</span><br>
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<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);"></span></p>
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<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">Chieh-Hsi (Jessie) Wu, PhD</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">Lecturer in Statistics</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">School of Mathematics</span></p>
<p style="font: 400 small Arial; text-align: start; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);">
<span style="margin: 0px; color: rgb(117, 123, 128);">University of Southampton</span></p>
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