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<p>Dear all,</p>
<p>On Thursday (24 October) at 2pm in <span class="event-where">54 / 10037 (10B), we have an S3RI seminar from
</span><span class="event-where"><span class="JtukPc">Guowen Huang (</span></span><span class="event-where"><span class="JtukPc"><span class="JtukPc">National Tsing Hua University</span></span>) on
</span><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description">"</span></span><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span class="event-description"><span class="JtukPc"></span><span class="JtukPc"><span class="ynRLnc"></span>Daily mortality/morbidity
and air quality: using multivariate time series with seasonally varying covariances"</span></span>. Details are given below.</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">The seminar will also be available via a live web-cast at</span></span></span></span><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://southampton.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=92682487-48c9-4c2b-a9ce-aaec00c7d07e">https://southampton.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=92682487-48c9-4c2b-a9ce-aaec00c7d07e</a><br>
</p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description">I am aware that staff in Social Statistics and Demography have a visit from the VC at 3pm on Thursday: I will make sure that the seminar finishes by 2:55pm, so that you can attend both events.</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">The talk will be followed by tea and cake in the staff reading room on level 4 of building 54. </span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">All are welcome!</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Best wishes,</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Helen</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">Daily mortality/morbidity and air quality: using multivariate time series with seasonally varying covariances
<br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">Guowen Huang, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan<br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">We study the associations between daily mortality, daily morbidity and short-term variations in the ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) and ozone (O3 ) in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and
Toronto. Firstly, a novel multivariate time series model within the Bayesian framework was proposed for exposure assessment, which is a mixture of Gamma and Half-Cauchy model, with the latter being used to capture the heavy tail of data distribution. Seasonally
varying covariances among pollutants are allowed, and the pollution model was implemented in Stan with parallel subthreads to speed computation. Then a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression disease model is used to relate exposure to disease
data, which allows exposure uncertainty to be propagated into disease model by making multiple sets of estimated exposure and then fit the disease model separately for each set before combining the estimated health effects. Finally, a convolution method was
employed to combine the health effects from four cities to obtain a union estimate of exposure health effects. The results suggest that NO2 was significantly associated with all non-accidental excluding injuries morbidity and circulatory morbidity, O3 was
significantly associated with circulatory morbidity and respiratory morbidity in these study cities during 1996-2012.
</span></p>
<br>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"></span><span class="event-description"><span class="event-description">For the current schedule of S3RI seminars, see
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftinyurl.com%2Fs3riseminar&data=01%7C01%7C%7C7818247ea99049a1705c08d755f37719%7C4a5378f929f44d3ebe89669d03ada9d8%7C0&sdata=B9ZWacbdxR8yB%2BbLZaEpxZ7PJoNFGBi90NLjW6HaR%2FA%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar" shash="O1Sn99UmlgIhYejm8AsSrkzDOOAmuMkTudBpFsNpbIGghLEgEpBYksQjfEkbf5jSywh7eTFEQN7UDpESbdm5IRRxdPRNEzZ0weo05bY3QIOt4IZnW2LMtr5Cghh/JlNR/+HOzxEP0Or508Jrf3ionqIn88JlP5MzkE9ORAEwGmk=">
https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar</a> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"></span></span></span></span></p>
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