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<p>Dear all,</p>
<p>On Thursday (3 October) at 2pm in <span class="event-where">54/10037 (10B), we have an S3RI seminar from
</span><span class="event-where"><span class="JtukPc">Richard Wilkinson (University of Sheffield)</span> on
</span><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span class="JtukPc">"What drives the glacial-interglacial cycle? A Bayesian approach to a long-standing model selection problem</span>". Details are given below.<br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">The seminar will also be available via a live web-cast at</span></span></span></span><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://southampton.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=94bcd93a-f6ca-4155-a9bf-aad800f34dc8">https://southampton.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=94bcd93a-f6ca-4155-a9bf-aad800f34dc8</a><br>
</p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">The talk will be followed by tea and cake in the staff reading room on level 4 of building 54. </span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description">All are welcome!</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Best wishes,</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Helen</span></span></span><br>
</p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">What drives the glacial-interglacial cycle? A Bayesian approach to a long-standing model selection problem
<br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">Richard Wilkinson, University of Sheffield <br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">The current ice age began approximately 3 Myr ago. Since then, the climate has fluctuated between glacial and inter-glacial periods, with the current inter-glacial period having lasted approximately 12 kyr. Scientists aim to understand
the dynamics of this cycle using low-order oscillating dynamical models, which they drive using the known solar forcing. Many different studies have argued for the primacy of different aspects of the solar forcing, or for different dynamical systems models,
by comparing data from ice-cores to (often hand-tuned) model predictions. Computational intractability has meant that heuristic arguments are usually used to argue for the superiority of a particular model or regime, rather than any form of principled statistical
inference. <br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="JtukPc">In this talk, I will describe how advances in Monte Carlo methodology allow us to give an answer to the long running debate about the impact of the solar forcing and whether it is possible to choose between models (given the paucity
of the data) by estimating parameter posteriors and Bayes factors. In order to make this approach feasible, careful design of the proposal distributions is necessary, and we describe Brownian bridge type proposals that are successful in this setting.</span></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"></span><span class="event-description"><span class="event-description">For the current schedule of S3RI seminars, see
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftinyurl.com%2Fs3riseminar&data=01%7C01%7C%7C0f4212d4fced42125aaa08d745b56474%7C4a5378f929f44d3ebe89669d03ada9d8%7C0&sdata=I4zabPBzUDRvVl%2B8KuEQ16mY%2FsAbjbNASHj9i7RvvS8%3D&reserved=0" originalsrc="https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar" shash="ZSu0TFg/DV9nWazPaJ5BkbAOHetnpKuuSQsij/CavcUByRxUrbB2MheUECyDezHK0dD3ZcYn/9MM6MXgCHpoUSCkDPMFvSRFm8UqWxp3WGcDxCSAgiYczRNHDNpxWTKvx+fwhwyHUU8YBNscR01EvbMDXjOmd7jgE7THy90sWRA=">
https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar</a> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span class="event-description"></span></span></span></span></p>
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