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<p>Dear all,</p>
<p>We have a packed schedule of S3RI seminars this week, with S3RI
short talks on Thursday, and a seminar from Chris Skinner (LSE) on
Friday. There is no S3RI seminar next week, so you will have time
to recover!<br>
</p>
<p>On Thursday (21 February), from 2-3:30pm in <span
class="event-details-label"></span><span class="event-where">54
/ 7035</span> (7B), we have short talks from some of our own:</p>
<p>14:00: Joanne Ellison on "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a
hierarchical Bayesian approach" <br>
14:20: Samuel Jackson on "Approaches to the emulation of chains of
computer models with application to epidemic policy making"<br>
14:40: Refreshments <span class="event-where"><span
class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">in the staff reading room on
level 4 of building 54<br>
</span></span></span></span>15:00: Andrew Hinde on
"Mortality statistics by place and cause of death in England and
Wales, 1851-1910"</p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; line-height: 100%"><span
class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">The short talks will also be
available via a live web-cast at</span></span></span></span><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://coursecast.soton.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=143d70f7-eba8-4fd1-a191-a9f8008caf43">https://coursecast.soton.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=143d70f7-eba8-4fd1-a191-a9f8008caf43</a></p>
<p>
<style type="text/css">p { margin-bottom: 0.25cm; line-height: 120%; }</style></p>
<p>On Friday (22 February) at 2pm in <span class="event-where">54 /
8033 (8B), we have an S3RI seminar from </span><span
class="event-where">Chris Skinner (LSE) on </span><span
class="event-where"><span class="event-description">"</span></span><span
class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span
class="event-description"><span class="event-description">Informative
cluster size and multilevel models</span></span>". <br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description">Details
of all talks are given below.<br>
</span></span> </p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">All are welcome!</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Best
wishes,</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Helen</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>**Thursday
21 Feb, 2-3:30pm, 54/7035**</span></span></span><br>
<br>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">Forecasting of cohort fertility
under a hierarchical Bayesian approach <br>
</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">Joanne Ellison, University of
Southampton <br>
</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"> In keeping with the recent
literature, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to
forecast cohort fertility rates. Using Hamiltonian Monte
Carlo methods and a dataset from the Human Fertility
Database, we obtain forecasts for 30 countries and use
scoring rules to quantitatively assess their predictive
accuracy.</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Approaches to the emulation of chains of computer models with
application to epidemic policy making<br>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"></span></span></span></span><span
class="event-description"></span></p>
<p>Samuel Jackson, University of Southampton<br>
<span class="event-description"></span></p>
<p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">We
describe novel Bayes linear emulation methodology to analyse
chains of computer models, where the outputs of one model feed
into the next model. We focus on emulating each model in the
chain individually, thus we have developed emulators for models
where the input is uncertain (as the inputs to all but the first
model are the uncertain emulated outputs of another model). The
first method proposes analysing each emulator’s behaviour for a
sample of inputs arising from a probabilistic distribution
commensurate with our beliefs about the output of the previous
emulator. The second method extends the field of emulation to
directly incorporate uncertain inputs within each emulator
itself. We demonstrate the potential of these novel emulation
approaches using intuitive examples, before demonstrating their
advantage over the single emulator approach for modelling of
epidemic diseases.</span> </p>
<p><br>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">Mortality statistics by place
and cause of death in England and Wales, 1851-1910 <br>
</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">Andrew Hinde, University of
Southampton <br>
</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">This presentation will describe
the challenges in producing a set of regional mortality
statistics by place and cause of death for England and
Wales between 1851 and 1910. The challenges arise from the
fact that (1) during the period the Registrar General made
several changes to the classification scheme used to
report causes of death, and (2) population growth and
change meant that the geographical units used in the
reporting varied over time. The paper is an historical
illustration of issues faced by many statisticians who
need to work with long time series of official data.</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"><br>
</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>**Friday
22 Feb, 2-3pm, 54/8033**<br>
</span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-description">Informative cluster size and
multilevel models <br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="event-description"> Chris Skinner, LSE <br>
</span></p>
<p><span class="event-description">When using multilevel modelling
to analyse clustered data, there may be reasons why the sizes of
clusters are correlated with cluster-level random effects. If
so, cluster size is called informative and conventional
estimation of the multilevel model parameters may be biased.
This talk will introduce the idea of informative cluster size,
mentioning its relevance to marginal models as well as
multilevel models. A novel within-cluster resampling approach to
bias correction will be described.</span></p>
<br>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"><span> <span
class="event-description"> </span><span
class="event-description"><span
class="event-description">For the current schedule
of S3RI seminars, see <a
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar">https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar</a>
</span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
</span></p>
<p><br>
<span class="event-where"></span></p>
<br>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"></span></span></span></span></p>
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