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<p>Dear all,</p>
<p>On Thursday (10 January) at 2pm in <span class="event-where">54
/ 7035 (7B), we have an S3RI seminar from Michael Sweeting (</span><span
class="event-where"><span role="heading" id="rAECCd">University
of Leicester)</span> on </span><span class="event-where"><span
class="event-description">"</span></span><span
class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span
class="event-description"><span class="ynRLnc"></span>Discrete
event simulation for assessing the cost-effectiveness of new
healthcare interventions: application to abdominal aortic
aneurysm screening</span>". Details are given below.</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span
class="event-description">The seminar will also be available
via a live web-cast at</span><br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://coursecast.soton.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8fd1f633-c316-4405-9dae-a9ce009662ec">https://coursecast.soton.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8fd1f633-c316-4405-9dae-a9ce009662ec</a><br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">The talk will be followed by tea
and cake in the staff reading room on level 4 of building
54. </span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description">All are welcome!</span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span>Best
wishes,</span></span></span><span class="event-where"><span
class="event-description"><span><br>
Helen</span></span></span></p>
<p>Discrete event simulation for assessing the cost-effectiveness of
new healthcare interventions: application to abdominal aortic
aneurysm screening <br>
</p>
<p>Michael Sweeting, University of Leicester <br>
</p>
<p>Cohort-level Markov models are often used to evaluate the
cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are
sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modelling or
investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. In this talk
I will describe the Screening Women for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm
(SWAN) project, where we undertook a health economic assessment of
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) screening in women. A previous
multi-state Markov model of AAA screening in men was adapted to
create a more flexible discrete event simulation (DES) model.
Information from published literature or relevant databases was
used to obtain input parameters for this model relevant to women.
<br>
</p>
<p>I will describe how the DES model was developed to allow the
progression of AAA to be modelled continuously using a
mixed-effects growth model of aortic diameter. This allowed
individual AAAs to grow at different rates and for different
surveillance, diagnosis and intervention strategies based on
observed diameter measurements to be easily compared. Monte Carlo
error in the estimation of incremental costs and effects was
reduced using two complementary approaches; firstly by simulating
pairs of "twins" with similar characteristics, one invited to
screening and one not; and secondly by oversampling individuals
who have an AAA at screening. <br>
</p>
<p> Finally, based on findings from this project I will address
whether population AAA screening in women is likely to be
cost-effective and provide recommendations for researchers wishing
to conduct their own DES modelling. </p>
<br>
<span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"><span> <span
class="event-description"> </span><span
class="event-description"><span
class="event-description">For the current schedule of
S3RI seminars, see <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar">https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar</a>
</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<p><span class="event-where"><span class="event-description"><span><span
class="event-description"></span></span></span></span></p>
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