[Turing-Southampton] S3RI seminar: Michael Sweeting, Thursday 2-3pm

[Helen Ogden]

Dear all,

On Thursday (10 January) at 2pm in 54 / 7035 (7B), we have an S3RI 
seminar from Michael Sweeting (University of Leicester) on "Discrete 
event simulation for assessing the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare 
interventions: application to abdominal aortic aneurysm screening". 
Details are given below.

The seminar will also be available via a live web-cast at
https://coursecast.soton.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8fd1f633-c316-4405-9dae-a9ce009662ec

The talk will be followed by tea and cake in the staff reading room on 
level 4 of building 54.

All are welcome!

Best wishes,
Helen

Discrete event simulation for assessing the cost-effectiveness of new 
healthcare interventions: application to abdominal aortic aneurysm 
screening

Michael Sweeting, University of Leicester

Cohort-level Markov models are often used to evaluate the 
cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are 
sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modelling or 
investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. In this talk I will 
describe the Screening Women for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (SWAN) 
project, where we undertook a health economic assessment of Abdominal 
Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) screening in women. A previous multi-state Markov 
model of AAA screening in men was adapted to create a more flexible 
discrete event simulation (DES) model. Information from published 
literature or relevant databases was used to obtain input parameters for 
this model relevant to women.

I will describe how the DES model was developed to allow the progression 
of AAA to be modelled continuously using a mixed-effects growth model of 
aortic diameter. This allowed individual AAAs to grow at different rates 
and for different surveillance, diagnosis and intervention strategies 
based on observed diameter measurements to be easily compared. Monte 
Carlo error in the estimation of incremental costs and effects was 
reduced using two complementary approaches; firstly by simulating pairs 
of "twins" with similar characteristics, one invited to screening and 
one not; and secondly by oversampling individuals who have an AAA at 
screening.

Finally, based on findings from this project I will address whether 
population AAA screening in women is likely to be cost-effective and 
provide recommendations for researchers wishing to conduct their own DES 
modelling.


For the current schedule of S3RI seminars, see 
https://tinyurl.com/s3riseminar

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