[Sociam-soton] Brexit and the bookies

[Kieron O'Hara]

Hi,

 

Interesting wrinkle about the use of bookies' odds or spread betting to
predict the referendum result. So far, the odds have always been in favour
of remain (currently 2-9 remain, 3-1 Brexit at Hills). Turns out this is a
more complex phenomenon than one might expect. Apparently, the huge majority
of bets placed are on Brexit, but much more money has been placed on remain.

 

When I did my study of the Cameron-Davis contest in 2005, it never occurred
to me to take the possible discrepancy between numbers of bets made and
amount of money place into account, and indeed in those offline days
Ladbrokes may not have had the data.

 

Good luck tomorrow!

Kieron

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