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Marc’s post reminds me that there was the EC-funded, STM-run PEER project that attempted to do exactly this comparison:
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<div><a href="http://www.stm-assoc.org/public-affairs/resources/peer/">http://www.stm-assoc.org/public-affairs/resources/peer/</a></div>
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<div>One of the aims of PEER was to discover the effect of Green OA on journal viability - for the journals that took part there were no negative effects on their viability. </div>
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<div>David</div>
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<div>On 22 Oct 2015, at 13:50, Couture Marc <<a href="mailto:marc.couture@teluq.ca">marc.couture@teluq.ca</a>> wrote:</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Hi all,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">What we would like to see here as evidence is something like what is being done about open access to scholarly monographs: rigorous studies, involving control
groups and close monitoring, testing the effect of making a toll-free copy available.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">I’m aware of two such studies, both made as part of the OAPEN initiative: one in the Netherlands</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">
and one in the UK (still ongoing, but preliminary results have been released).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Interestingly, both found no measurable effect of toll-free availability on the sales. The only “effect” of toll-free access is a tremendous increase of use,
as measured by summing the sales and the (much more numerous) downloads.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Here also, fears that scholarly publishing is incompatible, or endangered by OA were, and still are, regularly aired.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">It’s possible that things are not the same for journal publishing. But, pending reliable results, we simply don’t know, and predictions as to a loss of subscriptions
are nothing but speculation (or hypotheses).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">For details:
<a href="http://www.oapen.nl/images/attachments/article/58/OAPEN-NL-final-report.pdf">
<span style="">http://www.oapen.nl/images/attachments/article/58/OAPEN-NL-final-report.pdf</span></a> and
<a href="http://openaccess.ox.ac.uk/wp-uploads/2014/07/JACKSON-Oxford-OA-Monographs-June-2014.pdf">
<span style="">http://openaccess.ox.ac.uk/wp-uploads/2014/07/JACKSON-Oxford-OA-Monographs-June-2014.pdf</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Marc Couture</span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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