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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Hi Danny –<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Publishers support sustainable approaches to Green OA as well as Gold OA – indeed that was the focus of the panel discussion at the STM conference.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">For articles that are published under the subscription business model, when and how they are made available for free (on a wide array of platforms – institutional
repositories are one important example of these platforms) does make a difference. In my experience publishers are both evidence-based and thoughtful about how they set embargo periods and so forth.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">The evidence that is factored into decision-making currently includes:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">1. Usage Evidence<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">In 2014 Phil Davis published a study commissioned by the Association of American Publishers which demonstrates that journal article usage varies widely within and across disciplines, and that only 3% of of
journals have half-lives of 12 months or less. Health sciences articles have the shortest median half-life of the journals analyzed, but still more than 50% of health science journals have usage half-lives longer than 24 months. In fields with the longest
usage half-lives, including mathematics and the humanities, more than 50% of the journals have usage half-lives longer than 48 months. See
<a href="http://publishers.org/sites/default/files/uploads/PSP/journalusagehalflife.pdf">
http://publishers.org/sites/default/files/uploads/PSP/journalusagehalflife.pdf</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">2. Evidence for the link between embargos, usage and cancellations<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">A 2012 study by ALPSP was a simple one-question survey: "If the (majority of) content of research journals was freely available within 6 months of publication, would you continue to subscribe?" The results
“indicate that only 56% of those subscribing to journals in the STM field would definitely continue to subscribe. In AHSS, this drops to just 35%. See
<a href="http://www.alpsp.org/ebusiness/AboutALPSP/ALPSPStatements/Statementdetails.aspx?ID=407">
http://www.alpsp.org/ebusiness/AboutALPSP/ALPSPStatements/Statementdetails.aspx?ID=407</a> This 2012 study builds on earlier, more nuanced, studies undertaken for ALPSP in 2009 and 2006. The 2009 ALPSP study (see the next to last bullet) found that "overall
usage" is the prime factor that librarians use in making cancellation decisions. The 2006 ALPSP study (see points 7 and 8) found that "the length of any embargo" would be the most important factor in making cancellation decisions.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">A 2006 PRC study (see pages 1-3) shows that a significant number of librarians are likely to substitute green OA materials for subscribed resources, given certain levels of reliability, peer review and currency
of the information available. With a 24 month embargo, 50% of librarians would use the green OA material over paying for subscriptions, and 70% would use the green OA material if it is available after 6 months. See
<a href="http://publishingresearchconsortium.com/index.php/115-prc-projects/research-reports/self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-research-report/145-self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-co-existence-or-competition-an-international-survey-of-librarians-preferences">
http://publishingresearchconsortium.com/index.php/115-prc-projects/research-reports/self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-research-report/145-self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-co-existence-or-competition-an-international-survey-of-librarians-preferences</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">3. Experiences of other journals<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left:36.0pt">For example, the Journal of Clinical Investigation which went open access with a 0 month embargo in 1996 and lost c. 40% of institutional subscriptions over time. The journal was forced to return to the subscription
model in 2009, see <a href="http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/02/26/end-of-free-access/">
http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/02/26/end-of-free-access/</a> Other examples that spring to mind are the
<i>Annals of Mathematics</i>, the <i>Journal of Dental Research</i>, the <i>American Journal of Pathology</i>, and
<i>Genetics</i>.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">With kind wishes,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Alicia<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7F7F7F;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">Dr Alicia Wise<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7F7F7F;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">Director of Access and Policy<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#FF9900;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">Elsevier
</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:gray;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">I The Boulevard I Langford Lane I Kidlington I Oxford I OX5 1GB</span><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:gray;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:gray;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">M: +44 (0) 7823 536 826 I E:
<a href="mailto:a.wise@elsevier.com">a.wise@elsevier.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:gray;mso-fareast-language:EN-GB">Twitter: @wisealic<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"> goal-bounces@eprints.org [mailto:goal-bounces@eprints.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Danny Kingsley<br>
<b>Sent:</b> 16 October 2015 12:29<br>
<b>To:</b> goal@eprints.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [GOAL] BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half the story'<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><apologies for cross posting><br>
<br>
Hello all,<br>
<br>
You may be interested in the latest Unlocking Research blog: 'Half-life is half the story'
<a href="https://unlockingresearch.blog.lib.cam.ac.uk/?p=331">https://unlockingresearch.blog.lib.cam.ac.uk/?p=331</a><br>
<br>
<snip><br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:18.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:18.0pt;background:white">
<span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#141412">This week the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.stm-assoc.org/events/frankfurt-conference-2015/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration:none">STM Frankfurt Conference</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>was
told that a shift away from gold Open Access towards green would mean some publishers would not be ‘viable’ according to a story in<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.thebookseller.com/news/green-oa-will-hit-publishers-314667" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";text-decoration:none">The
Bookseller</span></em></a>. The argument was that support for green OA in the US and China would mean some publishers will collapse and the community will ‘regret it’.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:18.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:18.0pt;background:white;box-sizing: border-box;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: 1;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#141412">It is not surprising that the publishing industry is worried about a move away from gold OA policies. They have proved extraordinarily lucrative in the UK with<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/publishers-share-10m-in-apc-payments/2019685.article" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration:none">Wiley
and Elsevier each pocketing an extra £2 million</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>thanks to the RCUK block grant funds to support the<a href="http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/research/openaccess/" target="_blank"><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="text-decoration:none"> </span></span><span style="text-decoration:none">RCUK
policy on Open Access</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="mso-margin-top-alt:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:18.0pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:18.0pt;background:white;box-sizing: border-box;orphans: auto;text-align:start;widows: 1;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;word-spacing:0px">
<span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:#141412">But let’s get something straight. There is<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong><span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif"">no evidence that permitting researchers to make
a copy of their work available in a repository results in journal subscriptions being cancelled</span></strong>. None.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></snip> <o:p></o:p></p>
<pre>-- <o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Dr Danny Kingsley<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Head of Scholarly Communications<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>Cambridge University Library<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>West Road, Cambridge CB39DR<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>P: +44 (0) 1223 747 437<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>M: +44 (0) 7711 500 564<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>E: <a href="mailto:dak45@cam.ac.uk">dak45@cam.ac.uk</a><o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>T: @dannykay68<o:p></o:p></pre>
<pre>ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3636-5939<o:p></o:p></pre>
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