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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Dear Stevan<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Perhaps 2,000,000 articles per year is a better estimate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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</td>
<td width="323" valign="bottom" style="width:242.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Scopus<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Web of Science
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">2013<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td width="323" valign="bottom" style="width:242.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,955,651<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="290" valign="bottom" style="width:217.4pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,490,434<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">2012<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="323" valign="bottom" style="width:242.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,870,236<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="290" valign="bottom" style="width:217.4pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,429,118<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">2011<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td width="323" valign="bottom" style="width:242.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,791,684<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</td>
<td width="290" valign="bottom" style="width:217.4pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,367,947<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">2010<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td width="323" valign="bottom" style="width:242.45pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,673,164<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<td width="290" valign="bottom" style="width:217.4pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0cm .75pt;height:36.1pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">1,292,608<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">These are the estimates for articles reviews and letters<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Yours sincerely<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Wouter<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> goal-bounces@eprints.org [mailto:goal-bounces@eprints.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Stevan Harnad<br>
<b>Sent:</b> donderdag 16 oktober 2014 14:10<br>
<b>To:</b> Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci)<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [GOAL] Re: 114 million scholarly documents on the web; 27 million toll-free<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Oct 15, 2014, at 8:46 PM, Andrew A. Adams <<a href="mailto:aaa@meiji.ac.jp">aaa@meiji.ac.jp</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">How many scholarly papers are on the Web? At least 114 million, professor <br>
finds<br>
<br>
<a href="https://tinyurl.com/kogygol">https://tinyurl.com/kogygol</a><br>
The Number of Scholarly Documents on the Public Web<br>
Madian Khabsa, C. Lee Giles mail<o:p></o:p></p>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"> Published: May 09, 2014<br>
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093949<br>
PLOS OnePaper: <a href="https://tinyurl.com/pwefk88">https://tinyurl.com/pwefk88</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</blockquote>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">THE SOUND OF ONE HAND CLAPPING<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Extremely interesting finding, but the question it raises can be <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">expressed by the old Maine (sexist) joke, which I will here<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">present in a gender-neutral way:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Old-Timer #1: “How’s yir spouse?”<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Old-Timer #2: “Compayured to wot?”<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">27M articles are OA out of how many articles <i>published</i>?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">(Not out of how many on the web, but out of how many<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">published? And published <i>when</i>?)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">27M is a “dangling numerator.” We need to know the<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">denominator. (And also what the ratio was last year,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">and the year before, so we know how fast it’s growing,<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">and whether it’s nearer to 10% or 100%.) <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">114 articles on the web is not the right denominator.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to Ulrich’s Global Serials Directory <a href="http://ulrichsweb.com">
http://ulrichsweb.com</a><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">there are 105,000 peer-reviewed journals. (I don’t know what<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">proportion are English-language, nor what proportion are<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">uncited, but never mind.)<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Let us (under)estimate extremely conservatively that on average<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">they publish at least 15 articles each per year.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">That makes at least 1.5M articles published per year (close to the <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Bjork et al estimate in made in 2009 <a href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ837278.pdf">
http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ837278.pdf</a> )<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Now we need to know the date of publication of K & G's 27M OA articles.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">And we need to estimate what proportion of the Ulrichs annual 1.5M <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">articles is among the total 114M articles found on the web, <i>per year or publication</i>.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">And then we need to calculate what yearly proportion of that yearly subset <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">of Ulrichs is among those 27M articles that are OA.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The K & G ratio of 27M/114M = 24% is unfortunately not the <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">ratio we need, neither for the total ratio nor for the yearly ratio.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">The total ratio would be almost meaningless without dates: The total ratio of all <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">journal articles ever published?<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">So only annual ratios make sense. But if 1.5M were the annual denominator, <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">we would then need to know the corresponding annual OA numerator.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">In other words, we need an actual Ulrichs sample of the denominator for, say, <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">each of the last 10 years of publication, and then we need to know<i> what proportion </i><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><i>of those articles are OA, for each year</i> (the numerator).<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Unfortunately, Ulrichs indexes only journals, not journal articles. For annual<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">journal articles one needs to use Thomson-Reuters Web of Science or<o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">SCOPUS (and they only cover about 12% of Ulrichs -- but never mind, it’s<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">certainly a high-priority subset, and perhaps we can estimate the rest<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">from further sampling, the way Bjork et al did).<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">An <i>extremely</i> crude estimate might be derived from K & G's 27M, using 1.5M<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">as the annual denominator, if we had the publication dates for those 27M.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">(Do K & G have those data?) I don’t think 114M is a suitable proxy for that<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">denominator.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I am sure that K & G’s ingenious method can be used to make estimates<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">of OA/published ratios by year (and by field). I hope that K & G will<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">go on to do so. It will be a great help in tracking the growth of OA.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Without at least that it still sounds to my ears like just the sound of one <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">hand clapping — rather like the download stats that individuals proudly <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">post in their CVs these days, without providing any norms, reference <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">points or baselines for comparison. Rather like a pharmaceutical company <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">that tells you how many patients who took their drug survived (without telling <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">you how many didn’t, nor how many patients didn’t take their drug, nor what<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">happened to those patients!).<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Stevan Harnad<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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