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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Hi all<br>
<br>
The Elsevier study on OA prevalence study was part of broader
report. The methods are just shortly mentioned so its a bit
problematic to comment in detail.<br>
The global gold OA share found is 9,7 % of scopus articles,
consisting of 5,5 % APC paid and 4,2 others (not just 5.5 % as
Stevan noted below). The global hybrid share is 0.5. The green
global share could be assumed to more or less be the sum of
preprint versions of 6.4 % and accepted versions 5.0 %, adding
directly to around 11 %. In particular if their method only took
the first found full text copy and then classified it<br>
<br>
The big flaw of the study seems to be in the sample used, since it
consisted of equal numbers of Scopus articles that had been
published 2 months, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months before the
Googling. If the hits are simple added up for all the sampled
articles this means that a major share of selfarchivied
manuscripts are ignored, due to embargoes or author behavior in
for instance selfarchiving once a year. For instance half of the
copies in PMC would not be found in this way. Equally the very low
figure for "Open Archives", 1.0 %, could be a result of this
method. Our own results for delayed OA are around 5 %.<br>
<br>
So all in all the figures are much lower than if one includes
articles made OA with at least a one year delay, which we find is
the method we would recommend for studies claiming to give overall
OA uptake figures. Whether this methodological choice was a
conscious one from the study team or just an oversight is
difficult to know. But if they would have adhered to a strict
interpretation that only immediate OA is OA, the sampling should
have been different. Now it's somewhere in between.<br>
<br>
Best regards<br>
<br>
Bo-Christer<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
and On 12/6/13 5:31 PM, Stevan Harnad wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CAE7iXOiGtnMgVi3gk73ifmQO3-btxROJr8iE0GyyqKM68N541g@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
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<div dir="ltr"><span>Elsevier has just conducted and published a
study commissioned by UK BIS: "</span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/performance-of-the-uk-research-base-international-comparison-2013">International
Comparative Performance of the UK Research Base – 2013</a><span>"</span><br>
<br>
<span>This study finds twice as much Green OA (11.6%) as Gold OA
(5.9%) in the UK (where both</span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.dlib.org/dlib/october00/10inbrief.html#HARNAD">Green
OA repositories</a><span> and </span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://users.ecs.soton.ac.uk/harnad/Temp/UKSTC.htm">Green
OA mandates</a><span> began) and about equal levels of Green
(5.0%) and Gold (5.5%) in the rest of the world.</span><br>
<br>
<span>There are methodological weaknesses in the Elsevier study,
which was based on SCOPUS data (Gold data are direct and based
on the whole data set, Green data are partial and based on
hand-sampling; timing is not taken into account; categories of
OA are often arbitrary and not mutually exclusive, etc). But
the overall pattern may have some validity.</span><br>
<br>
<span>What does it mean?</span><br>
<br>
<span>It means the effects of </span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://roarmap.eprints.org/view/geoname/geoname=5F2=5FGB.html">Green
OA mandates in the UK</a><span> -- where there are relatively
more of them, and they have been there for a half decade or
more -- are detectable, compared to the </span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://roarmap.eprints.org/view/geoname/">rest of the
world</a><span>, where mandates are relatively fewer.</span><br>
<br>
<span>But 11.6% Green is just a pale, partial indicator of how
much OA Green OA mandates generate: If instead of looking at
the world (where about 1% of institutions and funders have OA
mandates) or the UK (where the percentage is somewhat higher,
but many of the mandates are still weak and ineffective ones),
one looks specifically at the </span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/358882/">OA percentages for
effectively mandated institutions</a><span>, the Green figure
jumps to over 80% (about half of it immediate-OA and half
embargoed OA: deposited, and accessible during the embargo via
the repository's automated copy-request Button, with a click
from the requestor and a click from the author).</span><br>
<br>
<span>So if the planet's current level of Green OA is 11.6%, its
level will jump to at least 80% as effective Green OA mandates
are adopted.</span><br>
<br>
<span>Meanwhile, Gold OA will continue to be unnecessary,
over-priced, double-paid (which journal subscriptions still
need to be paid) and potentially even double-dipped (if paid
to the same hybrid subscription/Gold publisher) out of scarce
research funds contributed by UK tax-payers ("</span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=cr&ei=b-CUUuTZNM-3kQeAj4CACA#q=harnad+%28fools+OR+fool%27s%29+gold">Fool's
Gold</a><span>").</span><br>
<br>
<span>But once Green OA prevails worldwide, </span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/?gws_rd=cr&ei=b-CUUuTZNM-3kQeAj4CACA#q=harnad+%22fair+gold%22">Fair
Gold</a><span> (and all the Libre OA re-use rights that users
need and authors want to provide) will not be far behind.</span><br>
<br>
<span>We are currently gathering data to test whether the </span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&lr=&q=harnad%20OR%20Harnad%20OR%20archivangelism+blogurl:http://openaccess.eprints.org/&ie=UTF-8&tbm=blg&tbs=qdr:m&num=100&c2coff=1&safe=active#c2coff=1&hl=en&lr=&q=%22immediate+deposit%22+blogurl:http%3A%2F%2Fopenaccess.eprints.org%2F&safe=active&tbm=blg">immediate-deposit</a><span> (</span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&lr=&q=harnad%20OR%20Harnad%20OR%20archivangelism+blogurl:http://openaccess.eprints.org/&ie=UTF-8&tbm=blg&tbs=qdr:m&num=100&c2coff=1&safe=active#c2coff=1&hl=en&lr=&q=hefce+immediate+blogurl:http%3A%2F%2Fopenaccess.eprints.org%2F&safe=active&tbm=blg">HEFCE</a><span>/</span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&lr=&q=harnad%20OR%20Harnad%20OR%20archivangelism+blogurl:http://openaccess.eprints.org/&ie=UTF-8&tbm=blg&tbs=qdr:m&num=100&c2coff=1&safe=active#c2coff=1&hl=en&lr=&q=liege+model++blogurl:http%3A%2F%2Fopenaccess.eprints.org%2F&safe=active&tbm=blg">Liege</a><span>)
Green OA mandate model is indeed the most effective mandate
(compared, for example, with the </span><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&lr=&q=harnad%20OR%20Harnad%20OR%20archivangelism+blogurl:http://openaccess.eprints.org/&ie=UTF-8&tbm=blg&tbs=qdr:m&num=100&c2coff=1&safe=active#c2coff=1&hl=en&lr=&q=Harvard+blogurl%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fopenaccess.eprints.org%2F&safe=active&tbas=0&tbm=blg">Harvard</a><span> copyright-retention
model with opt-out, or the </span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&lr=&q=harnad%20OR%20Harnad%20OR%20archivangelism+blogurl:http://openaccess.eprints.org/&ie=UTF-8&tbm=blg&tbs=qdr:m&num=100&c2coff=1&safe=active#c2coff=1&hl=en&lr=&q=NIH+blogurl%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fopenaccess.eprints.org%2F&safe=active&tbm=blg">NIH</a><span> model
with a 12 month embargo).</span><br>
<br>
<strong>Stevan Harnad</strong><br>
<br>
<span>P.S. Needless to say, the fact that the UK's Green OA rate
is twice as high as its Gold OA rate is true </span><em>despite</em><span> the
new </span><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://openaccess.eprints.org/index.php?/archives/1074-html">Finch/FCUK
policy</a><span> which subsidizes and prefers Gold and tries
to downgrade Green -- certainly not because of it!</span><br>
</div>
<br>
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