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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=863584314-03052013><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>Surely these figure have nothing to do with COST, and
everything to do with PRICE?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=863584314-03052013><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=863584314-03052013><FONT color=#0000ff
size=2 face=Arial>Sally</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Sally Morris</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT size=2 face=Arial>South House, The Street, Clapham,
Worthing, West Sussex, UK BN13 3UU</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Tel: +44 (0)1903
871286</FONT></DIV>
<DIV align=left><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Email:
sally@morris-assocs.demon.co.uk</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV><BR>
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<FONT size=2 face=Tahoma><B>From:</B> goal-bounces@eprints.org
[mailto:goal-bounces@eprints.org] <B>On Behalf Of </B>David
Prosser<BR><B>Sent:</B> 03 May 2013 15:18<BR><B>To:</B> Global Open Access List
(Successor of AmSci); boai-forum@ecs.soton.ac.uk post<BR><B>Subject:</B> [GOAL]
Comparing Revenues for OA and Subscription Publishing<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV>(Cross-posted)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>The Economist has published another piece on open access
publishing:<BR><BR><A
href="http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21577035-open-access-scientific-publishing-gaining-ground-free-all">http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21577035-open-access-scientific-publishing-gaining-ground-free-all</A><BR><BR>I
was struck by one paragraph in particular:<BR><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 40px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
class=webkit-indent-blockquote>Outsell, a Californian consultancy, estimates
that open-access journals generated $172m in 2012. That was just 2.8% of the
total revenue journals brought their publishers (some $6 billion a year),
but it was up by 34% from 2011 and is expected to reach $336m in 2015. The
number of open-access papers is forecast to grow from 194,000 (out of a
total of 1.7m publications) to 352,000 in the same period.</BLOCKQUOTE><BR><BR>
<DIV>By my reckoning this means that in 2012 the revenue breakdown was :</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>For Open Access = $890 per paper ($172m / 194k papers)</DIV>
<DIV>For Sub Access = $3,500 per paper ($6 billion / 1.7m papers) </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>If the 194,000 papers published in OA had been published in subscription
journals the extra costs could have been around $500 million
((3500-890)x194000). If you believe that all of these papers would
probably have been published whatever the business model you could recast this
as the worldwide community having made a saving of $500 million.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>If all 1.7m papers published in 2012 had been OA at $890 per paper the $6
billion a year business would shrink to a $1.5 billion a year business.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>There are lots of assumptions here (not least that my maths are correct),
but it is clear that </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>a) the direct costs of publishing in OA journals are current significantly
lower than publishing in subscriptions journals</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>b) the average cost per paper in OA is significantly lower than the roughly
£1,450 per article that represented the break-even point for the UK under which
the UK would save money if we moved totally to OA</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>c) the average is much, much lower than the typical price being offered for
'hybrid' OA. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>It would be very easy to construct an argument that the $890 per paper
figure is not scaleable to all of journal publishing, but it is interesting
that, at least for the moment, the figure is so low.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>David</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
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