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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Arthur,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Great work. Just trying to save you some
time. Here's what I found after working on it for about 2 years.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- # of researchers in the world is reported by UN
data in the Science Report.</FONT><FONT size=2 face=Arial> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- That figure directly relates to the number of
journal titles which relates directly to the number of articles, and the growth
rates of articles and researchers are 1:1. So, even if you're not
interested in the number of annual articles published, it's important to note as
a check on data and possibly a challenge to the evidence thus far. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- There are more researchers than annual articles -
about 6 to 7. Again, a check on data or a challenge.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>In the absence of any undertaking of reasonable
time and expense to count researchers better than the UN, I've relied
on that data not for great precision but because of the logical and empirical
support for the internal consistency of the relationships (the self-organizing
system of scholarly communication). </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I'm very confident in the precision of some
estimates and growth rates for articles and not others, those done by Mabe (1
million annual articles in 2000, 3.4% growth of journals over 3 centuries and
variability in Little Science, Big Science and Disillusionment periods) Tenopir
and King (similar data in the late 1990s) and Bjork. The 2.5 million
articles frequently cited by Harnad is way off because they failed to take into
account the difference in article averages - they used the article average from
ISI and the number of titles from Ulrich's. There is no excuse for that.
The other estimates that are way off occur before the tools were available to
get the precision needed and those are older estimtes. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>In addition, Bjork's work continues to cite
the 3.4% average annual growth of active journals, whereas</FONT><FONT
size=2 face=Arial> I have noted a spike in article and journal output
since 2000 which is important to note. The variations in article and
journal growth are what defines Little Science (before WWII), Big Science (after
WWII), Disillusionment (1970s to 2000) periods. Since the current growth rate is
minimally 4.5%, we currently see a) a reversal of disllusionment, b) the highest
variation in history, and c) the highest annual increase in production.
Moreover, we see a massive 10% drop in the share to the West (NA, Europe,
Australia and New Zealand), as a result of globalization. We can also see
from the data minimally 20% of articles being OA now, and the current
growth rate (last 5 yrs) pointing towards 50% in the next 20 years. So, I
have named 2 new periods after Disillusionment - Global Science (2000 to
current) and Open Science (current to future). </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Here are my frustrations with this research, it is
rooted in the ancient research paradigms of the 20th century, which I
myself had to wade through. It lacks REFLEXIVITY, and is hopelessly
academic. Academia is hopelessly unimaginative.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>You cannot determine the future of OA by the trend
alone, logically if the share of OA is already significant and growing rapidly,
this alters the market, and puts pressure on publishers to react. What
will happen is that as the OA share increases, more journals will convert to OA,
and more new journals will start OA. A quick look into Urlich's
tells me that the increase in new OA journals is much higher than
the current growth rate of Gold OA articles. Secondly,
the growth of mandates is spectacular, but the effect takes 2 years to
manifest so we are only going to start to see that in the
next decade. That means an acceleration of the trends that I've
pointed out is likely, begging the question as to who in their right mind
would publish a Toll Access journal in the year 2030, to a global audience who
will see Toll Access as a dinosaur? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Major publishers, as we've seen, have
started OA brands and this will continue until a major publisher converts
their entire product line to OA. That publisher will be loved because they
will have a useable website, and the others will start to look even more
awful.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>You cannot determine the future either by the
behaviour of current researchers, since we are in the midst of a vast
demographic shift from a research world dominated by Western baby boomers who
are retiring or will retire in the next 20 years. You should determine the
future of OA by the behavior of future researchers who reflected the boom in the
global youth population, and grew up in digital culture. Pay
attention to students. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>The goals of OA create this change, so you have a
reflexive effect particularly when researchers are transparently advocates of OA
(which is better than attempting a facade of neutrality impossible for the
researcher whose choices we are concerned with). The more you succeed in
advocating OA, the more you re-arrange and accelerate the data you're
studying. But no one is talking to the students.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Following my research, I decided to register a new
publising firm and I'm actually much more focused at the moment on creative arts
and culture - so I'm using what I call an Open Creative Commercial business
model. I plan to publish scholarly communication going forward, though I'm
not satisfied by the 'article' as a format since this was designed for
print. When we publish in print, there will be articles but they will have
to justify their production value by being both sound scholarship and nice to
read. Most journal articles are awful reads.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>My thesis is not that nice to read because my
university requires me to confine myself to 20th century conventions. I
apologize for this since you have decided to read it. What I will do is
put together a web presentation of the thesis, when I have recovered from
academia. I'm satisfied that the data shows that the research world is
changing, and I can't understand why OA advocates pay not attention to students,
particularly grad students since it is their culture and attitudes which will
determine their legacy and the future of OA. OA should pay attention
to and encourage students, and students know more about how to use the web
than their professors.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>There are several reasons why students are
Occupying campuses, and tuition is only one problem. Respect is the mai
problem. It is like the 'Bread and Roses' strike, we want the money
problem to be solved, but we want respect more than anything. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>There is the lack of respect for students' at
universities, particularly at the biggest ones in the North/West, which is
characterized by a culture of research entitlement. That is to say, profs
generally chase research money and neglect their students, adminstrators direct
funds to a massive, bureaucratic institutional structure and the value and
quality of education does not keep pace with social change. Students encounter
outdated lessons, teaching which does not observe pedagogical knowledge, grading
which discourages innovation, high debt load, and the parochial tradition of
bullying students with criticism. The criticism is largely habitual by
now, since profs do not have the time to constructively assist 100s of students
in their classes. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Profs know and understand that the institutions are
broken, but they have zero time to address problems. The system of tenure
puts forward the false notions of 'academic freedom' as if it were a carrot,
whereas all it is is job security. Thus, their days are spent chasing this
carrot, and carrying the heavy workload of dealing with 20th century
administration. They are time-poor They do this for the money.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Academic freedom cannot be granted, it is
inherent. I learned that in high school when I cut class to learn about
the world. All the best critical young thinkers are fed up with a
generation that has led us to crisis, failure, climate change, war, a university
climate which does not tolerate the spirituality or mysticism that
informs arts and culture, and that used to infuse intellect with
brilliance. In the Muslim world, I think we understand that the great
towering intellects of history were all mystics. Academia and in
particular social sciences, holds giant cultural
prejudices about the nature of reality, all of which were rejected by
modern physics 50 years ago. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>University today is oppression by debt and
drudgery and old white folks who feelg guilty about global decline. This
will be the case until it is occupied by the love of wisdom again. Access
to scholarship and Open Science marks the end of exclusivity to
scholarship reserved for elites who are members of rich institutions, and ends
the cultural hegemony of accreditated knowledge. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Tomorrow's researchers are going to take knowledge
into vast new dimensions of integrated understanding together with the need to
raise children in a world that one must admit is schizoprhenic, bipolar and
personality-disordered! It is chaotic and it can only be tolerated by a
student who becomes a Master, who grounds themselves in enlightenment
- intellectual, spiritual, mystical and devotional. My child's
studies in Sufism will be as important as their studies in maths. There is no
university today that understands any of this. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Because the OA trend is irreversible and people do
not require nor reasonably should place trust in peer-review anymore, all of the
topics we are now interested in quickly fade, and we become interested in the
action of sharing knowledge and being their own filter, doing it rather than
letting institutions do it. It would be unwise for today's university
teachers to place great emphasis on publishing in journals anyway, but it would
be wise for them to teach their students how to be leaders in contemporary
thought, how to navigate truth and reality, and to be informationally
wise, and to be fearless about the Openness paradigm - share your work! For
me it's like the Blues Brothers - 'I'm on a mission from God'. lol.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Now that I've finished my MA, I don't have to
conform anymore and I can be myself again -
mystic-philosopher-entrepreneur-occupier. There is a lot of bitterness I
need to transform into beauty, which is why I Occupy myself with the Creative
Arts at the moment. Poetry, literature, music, visual art, photography, creative
capitalism and mutual aid. This was dashed off quickly, and I really ought
to be on my zafu doing anapasati (that's Buddhist for 'sitting around').
Do you think, though, that there will ever space in the future for the Bohemian
at university - the Alan Watts type? I hope so. Otherwise, you'll just say
to people 'I got this strange letter from this student who is probably mentally
ill or on drugs'. Ugggh. That is the Brave New World we are
in.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>If this stuff is less fun and interesting to read
than my thesis, I've lost you! I wish you greatness in life, the depth of being
human, and a good death.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>'I believe that unconditional love and unarmed
truth will have the final say in reality' - MLK.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>all the best,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Arif</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>yo</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=ahjs@ozemail.com.au href="mailto:ahjs@ozemail.com.au">Arthur Sale</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=goal@eprints.org
href="mailto:goal@eprints.org">'Global Open Access List (Successor of
AmSci)'</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, January 02, 2012 11:43
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [GOAL] Re: How many researchers
are there?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=WordSection1>
<P class=MsoNormal>Thank you Arif. I have read the article this
afternoon (3 January) and will download and look through your thesis
asap.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>However I feel compelled to re-emphasize to the list that I
am <U>not</U> looking for an estimate of how many articles are published
annually, or ever. The first of those pieces of data is useful for estimating
what I really want to know: <U>how many active researchers are employed in
year y</U>? Particularly 2011. Of course, it will be useful to have article
counts by discipline, however rough, because publication practices differ
widely between disciplines. A publication in some disciplines is worth far
less than in others, the number of authors/article differs widely, and journal
prestige varies at least as much.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>There are many other confusing factors in estimates based
on article production rates which I touched on in my reply to Stevan Harnad,
not least of which is the frequency of publication of equally highly respected
researchers. Some publish rarely (say once every three years), others produce
multiple articles per year. There are distributions in all these things which
we should understand. If I mention just one, the huge disparity between
articles/title in ISI and non-ISI journals listed in your article (111
<I>vs</I> 26, from Bjork <I>et al</I>) must give anyone cause to reflect!
That’s over 4:1, too big to gloss over.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>I know of course that I cannot determine exactly the number
of researchers in the world, any more than anyone else can determine exactly
how many articles were written or published. As an engineer in a
previous career, absolute precision in these matters is not required, rather
sufficient confidence that we are in the right ballpark. Anyway, thank you
very much for your help and links, which I greatly appreciate.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Arthur Sale<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>University of Tasmania<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; COLOR: #1f497d; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<DIV>
<DIV
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: #b5c4df 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 3pt">
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Tahoma','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"
lang=EN-US>From:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Tahoma','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt" lang=EN-US>
goal-bounces@eprints.org [mailto:goal-bounces@eprints.org] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>Arif Jinha<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, 3 January 2012 5:26 AM<BR><B>To:</B>
Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci)<BR><B>Subject:</B> [GOAL] Re: How
many researchers are there?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Arthur,</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">You're not going to
be able to determine the exact number of researchers in the world and you will
have to make good estimates. But there are direct relationships between
the number of researchers, the number of articles published annually and the
number of active peer-reviewed journals. Good sources for methodology are
my thesis <A
href="http://arif.jinhabrothers.com/sites/arif.jinhabrothers.com/files/aj.pdf"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #0066cc; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">-
http://arif.jinhabrothers.com/sites/arif.jinhabrothers.com/files/aj.pdf</SPAN></A> (defended
and submitted this fall)</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">- Article 50
million - <A
href="http://www.mendeley.com/research/article-50-million-estimate-number-scholarly-articles-existence-6/"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #0066cc; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">http://www.mendeley.com/research/article-50-million-estimate-number-scholarly-articles-existence-6/</SPAN></A></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Methods and data
are based chiefly on:</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Bjork et al's
studies on OA share growth 2006 to current</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Mabe and Amin,
Tenopir and King - works 1990s to early 2000s</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Derek De Sallo
Price - 1960s - the 'father of scientometrics.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">- you can get the
number of article from Bjork's methods and data and mine.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">- you can get the
number of researchers from UN data but there is ratio of researchers to
publishing researchers, and publishing researchers publish an average of 1
article per year, so if you can determine good estimate for that ratio you are
on your way. You have good data on growth rates of researchers, articles and
journals, but growth rates have increased dramatically since 2000 as
demonstrated in my thesis. It got a bit complex and I tried to sort it
best I could in my thesis.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">all the
best,</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Arif</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">----- Original
Message ----- <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: black 1.5pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; MARGIN: 5pt 0cm 5pt 3pt; PADDING-LEFT: 3pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm">
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">From:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
title=ahjs@ozemail.com.au href="mailto:ahjs@ozemail.com.au">Arthur Sale</A>
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">To:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
title=goal@eprints.org href="mailto:goal@eprints.org">'Global Open Access
List (Successor of AmSci)'</A> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Sent:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> Saturday,
December 31, 2011 6:25 PM<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Subject:</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial','sans-serif'; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> [GOAL] How many
researchers are there?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: normal" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal>I am trying to get a rough estimate of the number of
active researchers in the world. Unfortunately all the estimates seem to be
as rough as the famous Drake equation for calculating the number of
technological civilizations in the universe: in other words all the factors
are extremely fuzzy. I seek your help. My interest is that this is the
number of people who need to adopt OA for us to have 100% OA. (Actually, we
will approach that sooner, as the average publication has more than one
author and we need only one to make it OA.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>To share some thinking, let me take Australia. In 2011 it
had 35 universities and 29,226 academic staff with a PhD. Let me assume that
this is the number of research active staff. The average per institution is
835, and this spans big universities down to small ones. Australia produces
according to the OECD 2.5% of the world’s research, so let’s estimate the
number of active researchers in the world (taking Australia as ‘typical’ of
researchers) as 29226 / 0.025 = 1,169,040 researchers in universities. Note
that I have not counted non-university research organizations (they’ll make
a small difference) nor PhD students (there is usually a supervisor listed
in the author list of any publication they produce).<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Let’s take another tack. I have read the number of 10,000
research universities in the world bandied about. Let’s regard ‘research
university’ as equal to ‘PhD-granting university’. If each of them have
1,000 research active staff on average, then that implies 10000 x 1000 =
10,000,000 researchers.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>That narrows the estimate, rough as it is,
to<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>
1.1M < no of researchers < 10M<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>I can live with this, as it is only one power of ten
(order of magnitude) between the two bounds. The upper limit is around 0.2%
of the world’s population.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Another tactic is to try to estimate the number of people
whose name appeared in an author list in the last decade. Disambiguation of
names rears its ugly head. This will also include many non-researchers in
big labs, some of them will be dead, and there will be new researchers who
have just not yet published, but I am looking for ball-park figures, not
pinpoint accuracy. I haven’t done this work yet.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Can we do better than these estimates, in the face of
different national styles? It is even difficult to get one number for
PhD granting universities in the US, and as for India and China
@$#!<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Arthur Sale<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>University of Tasmania,
Australia<o:p></o:p></P></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV>
<P>
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