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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Arthur,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>You're not going to be able to determine the exact
number of researchers in the world and you will have to make good
estimates. But there are direct relationships between the number of
researchers, the number of articles published annually and the number of active
peer-reviewed journals. Good sources for methodology are my thesis <A
href="http://arif.jinhabrothers.com/sites/arif.jinhabrothers.com/files/aj.pdf"><FONT
color=#0066cc size=3 face="Times New Roman">-
http://arif.jinhabrothers.com/sites/arif.jinhabrothers.com/files/aj.pdf</FONT></A> (defended
and submitted this fall)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- Article 50 million - <A
href="http://www.mendeley.com/research/article-50-million-estimate-number-scholarly-articles-existence-6/"><FONT
color=#0066cc size=3
face="Times New Roman">http://www.mendeley.com/research/article-50-million-estimate-number-scholarly-articles-existence-6/</FONT></A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Methods and data are based chiefly on:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Bjork et al's studies on OA share growth 2006 to
current</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Mabe and Amin, Tenopir and King - works 1990s
to early 2000s</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Derek De Sallo Price - 1960s - the 'father of
scientometrics.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- you can get the number of article from Bjork's
methods and data and mine.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- you can get the number of researchers from UN
data but there is ratio of researchers to publishing researchers, and publishing
researchers publish an average of 1 article per year, so if you can determine
good estimate for that ratio you are on your way. You have good data on growth
rates of researchers, articles and journals, but growth rates have increased
dramatically since 2000 as demonstrated in my thesis. It got a bit complex
and I tried to sort it best I could in my thesis.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>all the best,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Arif</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=ahjs@ozemail.com.au href="mailto:ahjs@ozemail.com.au">Arthur Sale</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=goal@eprints.org
href="mailto:goal@eprints.org">'Global Open Access List (Successor of
AmSci)'</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, December 31, 2011 6:25
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [GOAL] How many researchers are
there?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=WordSection1>
<P class=MsoNormal>I am trying to get a rough estimate of the number of active
researchers in the world. Unfortunately all the estimates seem to be as rough
as the famous Drake equation for calculating the number of technological
civilizations in the universe: in other words all the factors are extremely
fuzzy. I seek your help. My interest is that this is the number of
people who need to adopt OA for us to have 100% OA. (Actually, we will
approach that sooner, as the average publication has more than one author and
we need only one to make it OA.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>To share some thinking, let me take Australia. In 2011 it
had 35 universities and 29,226 academic staff with a PhD. Let me assume that
this is the number of research active staff. The average per institution is
835, and this spans big universities down to small ones. Australia produces
according to the OECD 2.5% of the world’s research, so let’s estimate the
number of active researchers in the world (taking Australia as ‘typical’ of
researchers) as 29226 / 0.025 = 1,169,040 researchers in universities. Note
that I have not counted non-university research organizations (they’ll make a
small difference) nor PhD students (there is usually a supervisor listed in
the author list of any publication they produce).<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Let’s take another tack. I have read the number of 10,000
research universities in the world bandied about. Let’s regard ‘research
university’ as equal to ‘PhD-granting university’. If each of them have 1,000
research active staff on average, then that implies 10000 x 1000 = 10,000,000
researchers.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>That narrows the estimate, rough as it is,
to<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal> 1.1M
< no of researchers < 10M<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>I can live with this, as it is only one power of ten (order
of magnitude) between the two bounds. The upper limit is around 0.2% of the
world’s population.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Another tactic is to try to estimate the number of people
whose name appeared in an author list in the last decade. Disambiguation of
names rears its ugly head. This will also include many non-researchers in big
labs, some of them will be dead, and there will be new researchers who have
just not yet published, but I am looking for ball-park figures, not pinpoint
accuracy. I haven’t done this work yet.<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Can we do better than these estimates, in the face of
different national styles? It is even difficult to get one number for
PhD granting universities in the US, and as for India and China
@$#!<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>Arthur Sale<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal>University of Tasmania, Australia<o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 115%; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>
<P>
<HR>
<P></P>_______________________________________________<BR>GOAL mailing
list<BR>GOAL@eprints.org<BR>http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>