[GOAL] Re: Reed Elsevier: Goodbye to Berlin - The Fading Threat of Open Access (Upgrade to Market-Perform)

[Dietrich Rordorf / MDPI]

Dear Rick,

Thanks for this. I love the fact that this forecast is from an
analyst that failed with his forecast three years ago, based on
assumptions that turned out to be wrong.

On this occasion we should remind ourselves that it is no so easy
to predict the future, no matter how beautiful the tie and suit one
wears. We should take the final statement lightly...

Best wishes from sunny but fresh Basel,

Dietrich


On 24.09.2014 10:20, Richard Poynder wrote:
> A new investment report on Elsevier has been published by
> BernsteinResearch analyst Claudio Aspesi.
>
> Extract:
>
> When we downgraded Reed Elsevier to Underperform in 2011, we thought
> that budget constraints would slow the growth of Elsevier's journal
> business below consensus. At the time, the outlook for the years to
> come was for continued cuts in academic library budgets, and we
> thought unavoidable that libraries would respond by progressively
> abandoning "Big Deal" contracts in order to achieve substantial
> savings, facilitated by the limited number of journals which really
> matter to readers.
>
> In addition, in 2012 we also thought that political intervention
> both in Europe and in the UK would force a shift to full Open Access
> (OA) journals, with negative consequences on the economics of
> Elsevier. Years of lobbying by various constituencies brought the UK
> first, then the European Union, and finally the Obama administration
> to adopt policies and, in the case of the UK and the EU, funding to
> support a transition to OA. By our estimates at the time, a full
> transition to Gold OA could lower Reed Elsevier's overall operating
> profit by an estimated 6 to 22%.
>
> 11 years after the Berlin Declaration on Open Access, however, the
> rise of Open Access appears to inflict little or no damage on the
> leading subscription publishers.
>
> The report is available here: goo.gl/WbSfF4 <http://goo.gl/WbSfF4>
>
>
>
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